By Damilola Adeleke

The long-standing legal dispute surrounding Nigeria’s Mambilla Hydroelectric Power project has reached a decisive phase. The International Court of Arbitration of the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) in Paris is set to hear the case in late January 2025. This contentious matter, which has lingered for over four years under Case No. 26260/SPN/AB, pits Sunrise Power and Transmission Company (Claimant) against the Federal Government of Nigeria (Respondent).

A Tumultuous HistoryThe Mambilla Hydroelectric Power project, first envisioned in 1972 during General Yakubu Gowon’s administration, has faced decades of delays. Despite initial progress, including the construction of a roller-compacted concrete dam in 1982 under President Shehu Shagari, the project remained dormant until 2000. That year, Leno Adesanya, founder of Sunrise Power and Transmission Company, revived the initiative, facilitating a bilateral agreement between Nigeria and China in 2001.

By 2003, Sunrise had secured a Build, Operate, and Transfer (BOT) contract to finance and manage the 3,050 MW dam for 35 years, an endeavor valued at $6 billion. However, successive Nigerian administrations disrupted progress, starting with President Olusegun Obasanjo’s administration, which shifted the project to a procurement model. Later administrations under Presidents Umaru Yar’Adua and Goodluck Jonathan reinstated Sunrise’s contract in 2012, only for President Muhammadu Buhari’s government to reassign the project in 2017, prompting Sunrise to seek arbitration.

Over the past 20 months, the ICC has reviewed comprehensive submissions from both parties, including claims, defenses, counterclaims, and expert testimonies. The hearing, set for January, will feature cross-examinations of high-profile witnesses, including former Nigerian Presidents Muhammadu Buhari and Olusegun Obasanjo.

Key witnesses for the Nigerian government include former Minister of Power Babatunde Fashola and former Minister of Agriculture Adamu, who will testify on government decisions and settlement negotiations. However, two pivotal witnesses—former Attorney General Abubakar Malami and former Power Minister Mamman Saleh—have declined to appear, raising concerns about the strength of Nigeria’s defense.

For Sunrise, former Attorney General Michael Aondoakaa is among the prominent witnesses expected to present evidence supporting the company’s claims.Potential ConsequencesThe ICC’s verdict, expected by early 2025, is unlikely to end the Mambilla saga. Early warnings of potential appeals from both parties suggest further delays. Meanwhile, the prolonged legal battle continues to tarnish Nigeria’s international reputation, portraying the country as plagued by inefficiency and corruption.

The Mambilla project, delayed for over four decades, remains a critical infrastructure initiative for Nigeria’s electricity sector. With only 4,000 MW currently serving a population of 240 million, the country faces persistent outages and grid collapses. The failure to resolve the project could push back its implementation by another six years, exacerbating costs and hardships for Nigerians.

As President Bola Ahmed Tinubu leads efforts to revive the project, the stakes for the administration are higher than ever. Without robust power infrastructure, Nigeria’s aspirations for industrial and technological advancement may remain unrealized, further straining national stability and security.