By Dele Sobowale

Nigeria is on the brink of a major rice crisis as local production continues to fall, forcing the nation to rely heavily on imports and smuggling to meet demand. Experts and industry stakeholders are sounding the alarm, warning that urgent action is needed to prevent food insecurity.

A Looming Food Crisis
Recent reports from Vanguard and Weekend Trust reveal a sharp decline in rice production, dropping from about 10 million metric tonnes in 2018 to just 4 million metric tonnes in 2025. This alarming trend threatens the country’s food security and could lead to higher prices for millions of Nigerians.

Why Is Rice Production Declining?
Agricultural experts point to multiple factors behind the crisis:

Corruption and Mismanagement: Programs like the Anchor Borrowers Programme (ABP), launched to boost local farming, reportedly failed due to corruption and poor execution.

Farmer Abandonment: Many rice farmers in major producing states such as Niger, Sokoto, and Ogun have stopped planting due to rising costs and low returns.

Import Dependence: With local output collapsing, the country is increasingly turning to rice imports and smuggling, which hurts local farmers and raises prices.

Experts Raise Red Flag
Dele Sobowale, a respected columnist, warned in his recent editorial:

“If urgent steps are not taken, Nigeria could face a full-blown food crisis that will hit the poorest households the hardest.”

The rice shortage isn’t unique to Nigeria. Countries like Japan have also faced rising rice prices in 2025, with some governments resorting to rationing to stabilize supplies.

What Can Be Done?

Agricultural stakeholders are calling for immediate policy reforms, increased funding for local farmers, and investment in mechanized farming to reverse the trend and reduce dependency on imports.

With rice being a staple in most Nigerian households, the government’s response in the coming months will determine whether the country averts a full-scale food crisis.