Between 2010 and 2023, Nigeria spent an estimated ₦11–12 trillion (~$20–26 billion) attempting to revive its moribund state-owned refineries, Kaduna, Port Harcourt, Warri, and others. Yet, after more than a decade of “turnaround maintenance,” these facilities remain largely non-operational, forcing Nigeria to continue importing fuel and draining foreign reserves. This colossal expenditure, rather than building domestic refining capacity or fueling national growth, became a monument to mismanagement and missed opportunity.

According to official reports, the Federal Government, through the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL), spent roughly ₦11.35 trillion on maintenance alone, with an additional ₦4.8 trillion on operating costs for refineries that produced little to no fuel. Despite these massive outlays, capacity utilization rarely exceeded 30 percent, leaving the country exposed to supply volatility and foreign dependency.

To put this in perspective, new, mid-sized greenfield refineries capable of processing 200,000–400,000 barrels per day cost between $5 billion and $15 billion each. The capital spent on failing refineries could have financed 2–3 brand-new, fully operational refineries, complete with modern technology, international expertise, and robust governance. Instead, the nation continued to rely on decaying infrastructure, bleeding resources with minimal returns.

The opportunity cost of this misallocation is staggering. Redirected into strategic investments, the ₦11–12 trillion could have revolutionized Nigeria’s energy sector, funding multiple natural gas plants, hundreds of megawatts of solar power, grid modernization, and LNG infrastructure. The healthcare system could have been transformed, with hundreds of new hospitals, upgraded clinics, telemedicine networks, and universal immunization programs reducing disease burden and mortality rates. Education could have expanded nationwide with modern universities, vocational centers, STEM labs, and digital learning infrastructure, producing a skilled workforce ready for industrial and technological growth.

Critical infrastructure could have seen a historic overhaul, including roads, railways, bridges, ports, and intercity high-speed rail corridors, boosting commerce and reducing logistics costs. Affordable housing initiatives could have supported hundreds of thousands of urban families, while agricultural investments in irrigation, processing facilities, storage hubs, and farm-to-market roads would have enhanced food security, rural incomes, and export potential. Strategic support for SMEs and industrial clusters could have created millions of jobs, diversified the economy, and strengthened Nigeria’s global competitiveness.

Instead, Nigeria endured persistent fuel imports, recurring subsidy burdens, and limited energy security, while billions of naira were sunk into projects that produced little to show for themselves. The lost opportunity is profound, capital misallocated today is progress deferred for decades. The lesson is clear, strategic investment, not repeated rehabilitation of obsolete assets, is the path to sustainable national transformation.

©️ Adebamiwa Olugbenga Michael is a Lagos-based political economy and policy intelligence analyst and publisher of The Insight Lens Project, providing data-driven insights across Nigeria and West Africa using open-source data.